Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Looks like I could be getting 'Freedom sugar cubes' before I see my 23rd:

"History repeats itself, but always with new twists. We are back to the good old days when a Declaration of War preceded the start of a war. Such declaration occurred on March 16th, 2006. Reversing the old order, we are now in the "Sitzkrieg", to be followed shortly by an aerial "Blitzkrieg" in the coming days.

In the old days, Congress declared war, and
directed the Executive to take action. In the new millenium, the Executive declared war last March 16th, then Congress will pass H.R. 282, "To hold the current regime in Iran accountable for its threatening behavior and to support a transition to democracy in Iran." This bill and previous ones like it are in direct violation of the legally binding Algiers Accords[pdf] signed by the United States and Iran on January 19, 1981, that states "The United States pledges that it is and from now on will be the policy of the United States not to intervene, directly or indirectly, politically or militarily, in Iran's internal affairs"; however, this is clearly of no interest to the 353 policymakers sponsoring the bill.

The US promised Russia and China that
the UN Security Council statement just approved will not be a trigger for military action after 30 days; true to its promise, the US will attack before the 30-day deadline imposed by the UNSC for Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment activity, i.e. before the end of April. The "justification" is likely to be an alleged threat of imminent biological attack with Iran's involvement."

Isn't it amazing that the trigger-happy war president has survived not one, but two elections and has not yet been dragged out of his Oval Office and burned at the stake? He has entrenched the American flag so deep in shit it is now nothing more than a shade of brown. People who support this man, and usually his war as well, seem propelled by their firm, inate beliefs in global threats, and I find it embarassing on their part to not be able to find a single leg to stand on when it comes to supporting the idea of a pre-emptive strike against Iran. Are you really expecting the world to believe the boy who cried wolf on Iraq? I'm reminded of this mentality of fear and pre-emptivity from that cartoon featured in Bowling for Columbine; the white man builds his own dangerous environment with gun-ownership out of an unrealistic fear for the black man. Aaron points this out in an updated context:

"Remember how right you got it on the WMD in Iraq? Try looking in the mirror and saying "Muslims are my fellow human beings". I knew you couldn't! Face it, you guys are the crazed bastards that want do destroy innocent life. Wake up! Eventually you'll have to explain your hatred to your maker."

Let us have peace, let us have life,
Let us escape the cruel night.
Let us have time, let the sun shine,
Let us beware the deadly sign.

An attack on Iran is essentially irony on the part of America's attempt to neutralise terrorist threats and propagate democracy and freedom going by their values (not interests) because:

a) Iran has the right to develop nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes and is given the right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Furthermore, the U.S. hipocritically has its own arsenal of nuclear weapons while aiding India in breaching this Treaty. Doesn't this just reek of "I AM the law!"...

b) viewing Iran as a threat based on its recent comments of Israel and the Holocaust does not make a man a terrorist. Leading a country into war on false pretenses, blowing up civilians and then calling it collateral damage is terrorism. In any case, I believe the President of Iran is entitled to his right to free speech. hmm...

c) the argument that Iran is an oppressive country under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime and justifies war is absurd. There are plenty of other oppressive countries that are oppressive AND/or hold nuclear capabilities but are simply underserving of military attention due to 'national interests'. Care to drop some hate-mail and military threats on China's doorstep?

d) a second "Iraq" (third if you count Afghanistan) will create further instability in the Mid East region. The majority muslim region will see this as an increasing threat not only against their land, but their religion. It is clear insurgency in Iraq is uncontainable 3 years since American forces crossed into Iraqi borders. A second war and occupation would likely propagate more anti-american sentiments and thus generate more sporadic attacks by Jihadists. The death toll will rise, more american parents will mourn, and the country will be in further monetary debt than it already is.

Casus Belli

"There is no casus belli against Iran based on its nuclear program. The IAEA has found no evidence that in the 20 years of its development there has been any diversion of nuclear material to military applications. The Bush administration now officially acknowledges that the issue with Iran arises from a "loophole" in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, that allows non-nuclear countries to pursue uranium enrichment. However it is not a loophole, the right to a full civilian nuclear program is an integral part of the compromise, that made non-nuclear countries agree to it. For the US to call it a loophole means to abrogate the treaty unilaterally and propose a different treaty that non-nuclear countries will have no motivation to agree to.

The Bush administration declares that a civilian nuclear program that gives Iran "knowledge" or "capability" to build a nuclear weapon is unacceptable. It could apply exactly the same logic to biotechnology. The State Department says that "Iran is expanding its biotechnology and biomedical industries by building large, state-of-the-art research and pharmaceutical production facilities. These industries could easily hide pilot to industrial-scale production capabilities for a potential BW program, and could mask procurement of BW-related process equipment." Why isn't the US demanding that Iran stops its biotechnology research and development, and that it transfers all biotech related activities to Russia?"

The day is coming, armageddon's near,
Inferno's coming, can we survive the blitzkrieg.

The final point is perhaps the most crucial and potentially dangerous aspect of using nuclear weapons in Iran. Bush so skillfully avoided the media questions and utterly failed to diffuse concerns over his Administration's plans as an option to use nuclear weapons against Iran. It may only be one of several options on the table, but is still an important one that he failed to address. I sincerely hope his PR guy simply isn't being paid enough. Newswise reflects on physicist Jorge Hirsch's report:

"It notes that there are no sharp lines between small and large nuclear weapons, nor between nuclear weapons targeting facilities and those targeting armies or cities, and that the use by the United States of nuclear weapons after 60 years of non-use will make the use of nuclear weapons by others more likely.

“Once the U.S. uses a nuclear weapon again, it will heighten the probability that others will too,” the physicists write. “In a world with many more nuclear nations and no longer a ‘taboo’ against the use of nuclear weapons, there will be a greatly enhanced risk that regional conflicts could expand into global nuclear war, with the potential to destroy our civilization.”

The letter echoes the main objection of last fall’s physicists’ petition, stressing that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will be irreversibly damaged by the use or even the threat of use of nuclear weapons by a nuclear nation against a non-nuclear one, with disastrous consequences for the security of the United States and the world.

“It is gravely irresponsible for the U.S. as the greatest superpower to consider courses of action that could eventually lead to the widespread destruction of life on the planet. We urge the administration to announce publicly that it is taking the nuclear option off the table in the case of all non-nuclear adversaries, present or future, and we urge the American people to make their voices heard on this matter.”"

Hirsch also makes his predictions of an eminent war and the disturbing mathematical logic supporting it:

"It is unlikely that there will be a public announcement of the impending attack before it starts, since it would generate opposition. Allies do not want to be implicated and will deny any knowledge. Who will be officially notified that an attack is about to take place? Most likely, Iran itself.

Direct conversations between the US and Iran are about to start, nominally on the subject of Iraq only. They will also provide the only direct conduit for the US to communicate with Iran without intermediaries. An "ultimatum" unacceptable to Iran, as was delivered publicly to Iraq on March 17th, 2003, could be delivered privately to Iran through that route.
[...] The "clear" reasons and "just" cause for the administration to attack can be stated as follows: if a bird flu pandemic can cause 150 million deaths and there is even a one percent probability that the "intelligence" is right, i.e. even if there is a 99% "uncertainty about the status of hidden programs", the expected number of deaths that would be prevented by bombing the Iranian facilities is the product of those two numbers, i.e. 1.5 million, vastly larger than the few housand Iranian casualties due to "collateral damage."

Any military reaction by Iran to the attack, perhaps even a verbal reaction, will be construed as "aggression" by Iran towards the US and Israel, and result in large scale bombing of Iranian missile, nuclear and other facilities. Does that sound absurd? Recall that the US and Britain bombed Iraq's no-fly zones well before the Iraq invasion, and Iraqi response was labeled "aggression toward planes of the coalition forces."

Nuclear earth penetrating weapons may be used in the initial attack, and certainly will be used in the large scale attack that will follow.

Why will this happen? Because it was "pencilled in" a long time ago. The actions of the US against Iran in recent years have been clearly directed towards a confrontation, to suppress the rise of Iran as a strong regional power that does not conform to US interests."
Prepare for the blitzkrieg...

Save us from fate, save us from hate,
Save ourselves before it's too late.
Come to our need, hear our plea,
Save ourselves before the earth bleeds.

The day is dawning, the time is near,
Aliens calling, can we survive the blitzkrieg.

- Metallica

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